Global turkey meat market: Key findings and insights

Sat, 19 May 2018

Global turkey meat market accelerated slightly

In 2016, the global market of turkey meat increased by 9 percent to 6.2 million tonnes, after languishing over the previous three years; prior to that, it also remained relatively stable. In wholesale prices, the market reached $13.5 billion in 2016, growing by 3.6 percent per year from 2007 to 2016; however, it indicated a mixed trend pattern with regard to the total consumption figures. A significant increase in 2008 (16 percent year-on-year) was followed by a sharp decline in 2009 (86 percent year-on-year). According to IndexBox estimates, over the next two years the market recovered gradually and then levelled off over the next five years.

Global consumption of turkey meat is expected to reach 6.7 million tonnes by 2025

Turkey meat is a product of stable demand in North America, Europe and Latin America, but the levels of per capita consumption vary from country to country. Turkey meat consumption is largely determined by the level of income per capita of the population and seasonality (government holidays and Christmas), thus, countries with a high standard of living traditionally have higher per capita consumption of turkey meat. On the other hand, the rise in living standards and the rapid pace of urbanisation, increasing popularity of western diets in Asia and higher attention for lower fat intake have led to a significant increase in production and consumption of turkey meat across the world over the last decade.

Given the backdrop of global population growth, which drives the demand for food, a gradual increase in household incomes and in a turnover of retail trade amid continuing urbanisation will be the main drivers behind the growth of the global meat consumption, which should also affect the turkey meat market. On the other hand, improved meat supply thanks to the development of production capacities, along with maintaining strict poultry standards should secure capabilities to meet the market demand.

Therefore, the performance of the market is predicted to grow with an anticipated CAGR of 0.8 percent for the next nine years, which is forecasted to bring the market volume to 6.7 million tonnes by 2025.

The US and large European countries constitute major markets for turkey meat

The US (2,519 thousand tonnes) dominated global turkey meat consumption, alone comprising approximately 41 percent of the global figure. In terms of turkey meat consumption, the US was followed by Brazil (8.1 percent), Germany (8.0 percent), France (5.5 percent), Italy (4.4 percent), Russia (3.7 percent), Spain (3.0 percent), Mexico (2.8 percent), the UK (2.7 percent), Canada (2.3 percent), Israel (1.5 percent), Chile (1.4 percent), Tunisia (1.2 percent). The remaining countries together comprised nearly 15 percent of the global consumption.

The highest annual growth rates of turkey meat consumption from 2007 to 2016 were recorded in Spain, with 19.2 percent per year, Russia, with 8.5 percent, and Brazil, with 5.4 percent per year. Consequently, Brazil, Russia and Spain strengthened their shares in terms of global turkey meat consumption by 2 percentage points, each, from 2007 to 2016. By contrast, the shares of the US (4 percentage points) and France (2 percentage points) declined over the period under review.

Amongst the leading consuming countries, high levels of per capita consumption were recorded in Israel (11.5 kg/year in 2016) and the U.S. (7.8 kg/year), which were significantly higher than the world average of 0.8 kg/year. In these countries, per capita consumption declined slightly from 2007-2016.

Global turkey meat production increased notably over the last year

Production of turkey meat reached 6.3 million tonnes in 2016, with an overall upward trend. This figure was 482 thousand tonnes (or 8 percent) more than the year before and 797 thousand tonnes (or 14 percent) more than the outset level. In value terms, an overall expansion of the global output was more pronounced increasing from $9.8 billion in 2007 to $13.5 billion in 2016. The trend pattern, however, was not totally consistent: the value of production dropped by 14 percent in 2009, recovering over the next two years and then levelling off through to 2016.

The US produced 43 percent of global turkey meat output

The US remains the key world turkey meat producing country with an output of about 2.7 million tonnes in 2016, which accounted for 43 percent of total global output. The other major producers were Brazil (9 percent), Germany (8 percent), France (6 percent), Italy (5 percent), Russia (4 percent), Spain, Poland, Canada, the UK (3 percent, each). In the US, production levels declined somewhat in 2009 but then recovered gradually, returning to its outset level in 2016. The highest pace of growth with regard to turkey meat production was observed in Spain (25.9 percent from 2007-2016) and Russia (22.3 percent).

Approximately 17 percent of the global production was exported

Turkey meat is a widely traded commodity, with the share of export in the global output standing at approximately 16-18 percent from 2007-2016. High trade intensity is determined mainly by substantial distances between the main countries of turkey meat production and some major consuming countries. Turkey meat will continue to be highly traded, fuelled by increasing consumption and intense global and regional integration.

The US remains the largest supplier of turkey meat

In 2016, the volume of global exports totalled 1,080 thousand tonnes, with a mixed trend pattern over the last few years. A gradual increase over the period from 2007 to 2008 was followed by a pronounced decline in 2009 caused by a slump in consumption due to declining incomes on the backdrop of the financial crisis in the US and throughout the world. Afterwards, the volume of exports increased gradually from 2010-2012, recovering from its recessionary slump, and then flattened over the next two years. In 2015, however, it dropped somewhat, pressured by rising prices in the US, which remains the largest global exporter of turkey meat; the volume of exports then bounced back slightly in 2016, when the price went down. In value terms, global exports of turkey meat amounted to $2,501 million in 2016, declining noticeably for the second consecutive year: in 2015, it reflected the decline of the volume of exports, then it was caused by a drop in export price in 2016.

The US (216 thousand tonnes), Poland (172 thousand tonnes), Germany (109 thousand tonnes), Brazil (94 thousand tonnes), France (81 thousand tonnes), Italy (71 thousand tonnes) and Spain (50 thousand tonnes) were the main global suppliers of turkey meat with a combined share of 73 percent of global exports. From 2007 to 2016, Poland (+10.4 percent per year) and Spain (+11.8 percent per year) were the fastest growing suppliers among the major exporters.

Mexico and Germany constitute the largest markets for imported turkey meat

The volume of global imports totalled 990 thousand tonnes, equating $2,481 million in 2016. The trend pattern of imports generally mirrored that of exports: these trade flows globally complement each other.

In 2016, Mexico (157 thousand tonnes) and Germany (117 thousand tonnes) constituted the largest importers of turkey meat, followed by Benin (49 thousand tonnes), Belgium (44 thousand tonnes), Spain (43 thousand tonnes), the UK (39 thousand tonnes) and Austria (37 thousand tonnes); all these countries together comprised 44 percent of the global imports. Benin (+7.4 percent per year), the UK (+3.8 percent per year), Germany (+3.4 percent per year) and Spain (+3.2 percent per year) gained the highest annual growth rates from 2007 to 2016, while imports to Mexico contracted by -2.2 percent annually over the same period. Therefore, the share of Mexico contracted from 20 percent in 2007 to 16 percent in 2016, while the shares of Germany (+3 percentage points) and Benin (+2 percentage points) increased. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analysed period.

As reported by IndexBox